Research and Commentary
A Clear Perspective and Point of ViewAbout Global Market Outlook Reports
About Global Market Outlook Reports
Our CIO, Tina Byles Williams, publishes our market outlook on a quarterly basis, based on research that examines market conditions over a three- to six-month period. These quarterly analyses serve as key inputs to our fund construction process, which incorporates strategic tilts to the market segments we believe will outperform over a six- to 12-month time frame. For global equity portfolios, these tilts incorporate regional, sector, and capitalization strata as well as investment process and style factors. For U.S. equity portfolios, tilts include sector, capitalization strata, investment process, and/or style factors.
Our objective is to construct a portfolio of “best in class” investments with weightings consistent with our overall investment strategy.
FIS Group Global Market Outlook Reports
Q3 2017: Full Steam Ahead
Market Outlook | Papers Article Summary As global equity markets continue their rise, here is our Q3 Market Outlook report "Full Steam Ahead". This issue includes: The Q2 global equity market recap FIS Group's global country and sector positioning for Q3,...
Q2 2017: Reality “Trumps” the Reflation Trade
Market Outlook Article Summary Our 2Q Market Outlook "Reality "Trumps" the Reflation Trade," evaluates the recent retreat in risk assets, trends in global equities, the impact of a strong U.S. dollar, and continued political uncertainty under the Trump Administration....
Big Winners in the Neglected Frontier Universe
Our Q1 2017 Global Market Outlook, Who Knows? Navigating the Known Knowns and Underappreciated Knowns In Current Market Consensus, examines vulnerabilities in the bullish consensus narrative underpinning global equity markets. The key vulnerabilities discussed are U.S. dollar appreciation, elevated U.S. Small Cap valuations, questionable assumptions behind the bullish narrative on EM equities, as well as gathering geopolitical risks.
Q1 2017: Who Knows? Navigating the Known Knowns and Underappreciated Knowns In Current Market Consensus
Our Q1 2017 Global Market Outlook, Who Knows? Navigating the Known Knowns and Underappreciated Knowns In Current Market Consensus, examines vulnerabilities in the bullish consensus narrative underpinning global equity markets. The key vulnerabilities discussed are U.S. dollar appreciation, elevated U.S. Small Cap valuations, questionable assumptions behind the bullish narrative on EM equities, as well as gathering geopolitical risks.
Goldilocks is On life Support: Gathering Policy Headwinds and Monetary Policy Exhaustion
Our outlook looks at global equity markets, earnings, emerging markets, and currencies through the end of the year in the face of another interest rate hike in December and impending political events in the U.S. and Europe. We also evaluate the longer term macroeconomic and investment strategy implications of impending monetary policy exhaustion and resurgent populism in a piece entitled: Goldilocks is on Life Support: Investment Strategy in Light of Monetary Policy Exhaustion and Resurgent Populism
The Revenge Of The Precariat Over Davos Man
The turmoil that erupted after the June 23rd Brexit referendum has purportedly prompted many people who voted “Leave” to rethink their decision. New PM Theresa May has stated that “Brexit means Brexit,” dimming hopes that the referendum’s results would be reversed; but also inferring that Article 50 will not be invoked until next year. May has also appointed a number of prominent Brexit supporters to her cabinet,
with David Davis heading the new “Brexit Ministry” and Boris Johnson installed as the Foreign Secretary. These pronouncements and appointments could indicate that she has succumbed to Brexit (despite her earlier opposition) or it could be a shrewd political strategy to allow its economic and political consequences to hit home with voters and force her former rivals to “own” the fallout if and when the public turns on Brexit and its proponents. If future opinion polls show that a decisive plurality of UK voters favor remaining in the EU, this would give the British government the excuse necessary to call for a second plebiscite.
Market Insights Alert
Papers: FIS Group Proprietary Research
Battening Down the Hatches Part Three
View PDF version Battening Down The Hatches Part Three Part 3: Evaluating Rebalancing Techniques for Portfolio DeriskingIn this, the third of a three-part series “Battening Down the Hatches”, we evaluate portfolio derisking techniques that most cost effectively...
Long duration equity strategies (growth, technology, certain private equity LBO strategies) appear vulnerable….
It is difficult to build a case that equity markets won’t contract in a slow-down. Since 1950, whenever CAPE valuations were above 20 and industrial production declined in the previous 12 months, the 12-month return of the stock market was -10.4%, with only 34% of periods having positive returns.
Some bond strategies may not live up to their downside protection billing the next time….
Interest income is attributable for all or most of bonds’ downside protection; therefore starting yields are critical. Bonds have traditionally been an important component of any portfolio derisking strategy but interest income has been a significantly larger piece of the return pie during economic downturns; whilst spread compression has been less significant.
What Asset Classes and Sectors have provided downside protection in prior market downturns?
Our analysis suggests that:
1. Low volatility strategies outperformed among publicly traded equities
2. Exposure to corporate default risk reduced bonds’ downside protection.
Why the 1970s and early 1980s style stagflation are unlikely today
The three preconditions that led to the stagflation period of the 1970s are less likely today. But the relationship between trade disruptions and growth could catalyze a global recession and the relationship between oil prices and inflation expectations could abort the easy monetary policy which current asset prices discount.
What economic and market characteristics are different today that prior pre-downturn periods?
Our evaluation of key downturns over the last 30-year point to 3 key differences between today’s macro backdrop and the most recent period.
Videos And Webinars
Market Outlook and Research Webinars
The FIS Group Ecosystem
Panelist Information: N/A
Duration: 40 minutes
Description: N/A
Ecosystem Webinar Presentation
Facilitating opportunity
• Grow and diversify the pool of talented entrepreneurial managers to the benefit
of the asset management industry
• Support entrepreneurial efforts of talented investment managers
• Increase FIS Group’s first mover track record from 25% to 50%
of all funded firms
• Funded entirely by revenue generated from
FIS Group’s core business
• Services provided at no cost to the managers
From Versus to Versatility: Exploring the Cyclicality of Active & Passive Management
Panelist Information: N/A
Duration: 51 minutes
Description: This interactive webinar discussion will be led by FIS Group’s Founder and CIO, Tina Byles Williams. The discussion will highlight the actionable implications from our recently published white paper entitled, “Is Active Equity Management Alpha on Permanent or Temporary Disability?” Additionally, the paper’s models have been updated for this discussion, and Tina will reveal whether the updates had a significant effect on the original conclusions. Tina will close this webinar by providing participants with a peek at what FIS Group’s market and risk models are forecasting for 4th Quarter.
The topics to be discussed during the webinar include the following:
• Evidence pointing to the cyclical nature of periods when either active or passive management are in favor rather than a permanent “new normal” where active U.S. large-cap managers struggle to beat their benchmarks;
• Updates on several of the conclusions published in the original paper and their implication for active managers in a time of anticipated Fed tapering and slowing of corporate profit growth;
• The uncertainty of whether the ‘Risk On, Risk Off’ trading environment of the last five years will persist or give way to a renewed premium on stock picking;
• FIS Group’s forecast for the 4Q 2013 market environment and our view on investment opportunities for capital allocators and equity managers for the remainder of the year.