Research and Commentary

A Clear Perspective and Point of View

About Global Market Outlook Reports

2020 Outlook for Emerging and Frontier Markets

While the U.S. continued its decade-long run, surging ahead another +31% in 2019 to lead all major developed markets (except Switzerland, +32.5%), three emerging markets did even better last year. Taiwan gained +36% as investors reevaluated the “moat” of its market champion, …

About Global Market Outlook Reports

Our CIO, Tina Byles Williams, publishes our market outlook on a quarterly basis, based on research that examines market conditions over a three- to six-month period. These quarterly analyses serve as key inputs to our fund construction process, which incorporates strategic tilts to the market segments we believe will outperform over a six- to 12-month time frame. For global equity portfolios, these tilts incorporate regional, sector, and capitalization strata as well as investment process and style factors. For U.S. equity portfolios, tilts include sector, capitalization strata, investment process, and/or style factors.

Our objective is to construct a portfolio of “best in class” investments with weightings consistent with our overall investment strategy.

FIS Group Global Market Outlook Reports


Q3 2017: Full Steam Ahead

Market Outlook | Papers Article Summary As global equity markets continue their rise, here is  our Q3 Market Outlook report "Full Steam Ahead". This issue includes: The Q2 global equity market recap FIS Group's global country and sector positioning for Q3,...

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Q2 2017: Reality “Trumps” the Reflation Trade

Market Outlook Article Summary Our 2Q Market Outlook "Reality "Trumps" the Reflation Trade," evaluates the recent retreat in risk assets, trends in global equities, the impact of a strong U.S. dollar, and continued political uncertainty under the Trump Administration....

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Big Winners in the Neglected Frontier Universe

Our Q1 2017 Global Market Outlook, Who Knows? Navigating the Known Knowns and Underappreciated Knowns In Current Market Consensus, examines vulnerabilities in the bullish consensus narrative underpinning global equity markets. The key vulnerabilities discussed are U.S. dollar appreciation, elevated U.S. Small Cap valuations, questionable assumptions behind the bullish narrative on EM equities, as well as gathering geopolitical risks.

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Q1 2017: Who Knows? Navigating the Known Knowns and Underappreciated Knowns In Current Market Consensus

Our Q1 2017 Global Market Outlook, Who Knows? Navigating the Known Knowns and Underappreciated Knowns In Current Market Consensus, examines vulnerabilities in the bullish consensus narrative underpinning global equity markets. The key vulnerabilities discussed are U.S. dollar appreciation, elevated U.S. Small Cap valuations, questionable assumptions behind the bullish narrative on EM equities, as well as gathering geopolitical risks.

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Goldilocks is On life Support: Gathering Policy Headwinds and Monetary Policy Exhaustion

Our outlook looks at global equity markets, earnings, emerging markets, and currencies through the end of the year in the face of another interest rate hike in December and impending political events in the U.S. and Europe. We also evaluate the longer term macroeconomic and investment strategy implications of impending monetary policy exhaustion and resurgent populism in a piece entitled: Goldilocks is on Life Support: Investment Strategy in Light of Monetary Policy Exhaustion and Resurgent Populism

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The Revenge Of The Precariat Over Davos Man

The turmoil that erupted after the June 23rd Brexit referendum has purportedly prompted many people who voted “Leave” to rethink their decision. New PM Theresa May has stated that “Brexit means Brexit,” dimming hopes that the referendum’s results would be reversed; but also inferring that Article 50 will not be invoked until next year. May has also appointed a number of prominent Brexit supporters to her cabinet,
with David Davis heading the new “Brexit Ministry” and Boris Johnson installed as the Foreign Secretary. These pronouncements and appointments could indicate that she has succumbed to Brexit (despite her earlier opposition) or it could be a shrewd political strategy to allow its economic and political consequences to hit home with voters and force her former rivals to “own” the fallout if and when the public turns on Brexit and its proponents. If future opinion polls show that a decisive plurality of UK voters favor remaining in the EU, this would give the British government the excuse necessary to call for a second plebiscite.

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Market Insights Alert

Papers: FIS Group Proprietary Research


Battening Down the Hatches Part Three

Battening Down the Hatches Part Three

View PDF version Battening Down The Hatches Part Three Part 3: Evaluating Rebalancing Techniques for Portfolio DeriskingIn this, the third of a three-part series “Battening Down the Hatches”, we evaluate portfolio derisking techniques that most cost effectively...

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Why the 1970s and early 1980s style stagflation are unlikely today

Why the 1970s and early 1980s style stagflation are unlikely today

The three preconditions that led to the stagflation period of the 1970s are less likely today.  But the relationship between trade disruptions and growth could catalyze a global recession and the relationship between oil prices and inflation expectations could abort the easy monetary policy which current asset prices discount.

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Videos And Webinars

Market Outlook and Research Webinars


Ecosystem Webinar Presentation

Facilitating opportunity
• Grow and diversify the pool of talented entrepreneurial managers to the benefit
of the asset management industry
• Support entrepreneurial efforts of talented investment managers
• Increase FIS Group’s first mover track record from 25% to 50%
of all funded firms
• Funded entirely by revenue generated from
FIS Group’s core business
• Services provided at no cost to the managers

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From Versus to Versatilit​y: Exploring the Cyclicalit​y of Active & Passive Management

Panelist Information: N/A
Duration: 51 minutes
Description: This interactive webinar discussion will be led by FIS Group’s Founder and CIO, Tina Byles Williams. The discussion will highlight the actionable implications from our recently published white paper entitled, “Is Active Equity Management Alpha on Permanent or Temporary Disability?” Additionally, the paper’s models have been updated for this discussion, and Tina will reveal whether the updates had a significant effect on the original conclusions. Tina will close this webinar by providing participants with a peek at what FIS Group’s market and risk models are forecasting for 4th Quarter.

The topics to be discussed during the webinar include the following:

• Evidence pointing to the cyclical nature of periods when either active or passive management are in favor rather than a permanent “new normal” where active U.S. large-cap managers struggle to beat their benchmarks;

• Updates on several of the conclusions published in the original paper and their implication for active managers in a time of anticipated Fed tapering and slowing of corporate profit growth;

• The uncertainty of whether the ‘Risk On, Risk Off’ trading environment of the last five years will persist or give way to a renewed premium on stock picking;

• FIS Group’s forecast for the 4Q 2013 market environment and our view on investment opportunities for capital allocators and equity managers for the remainder of the year.

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