The performance of global equites in the first half of the year (+16.23%) is consistent with our commentary in the last two Market Outlook reports, which projected a late cycle rally. The question is whether the strongest period might now be behind us? We think it probably is for U.S. equities, though in the short term they could still be modestly boosted by “insurance” interest rate cuts by the FOMC. In our Q1 and Q2 Outlooks this year we projected that performance leadership will shift from the U.S. to the rest of the world (RoW) during the second half of the year and we continue to believe that such a pivot will occur, particularly if the dovish pivot by major central banks materializes into actual policy.
- Long duration equity strategies (growth, technology, certain private equity LBO strategies) appear vulnerable….
- Some bond strategies may not live up to their downside protection billing the next time….
- What Asset Classes and Sectors have provided downside protection in prior market downturns?
- Why the 1970s and early 1980s style stagflation are unlikely today
- What economic and market characteristics are different today that prior pre-downturn periods?