Frontier markets slumped in line with other non-dollar denominated markets in 2018; though outside of Argentina, frontier markets as a whole outperformed even the U.S. market. In our annual outlook we first look back to grade our calls from last year (spoiler: very good, except for Argentina) and look ahead to 2019. Broad prospects for the beta in frontier markets remain mixed, but with good stock-picking opportunities amid increasing neglect. In 2019 we remain strategically bullish only in Vietnam, but are also looking for some tactical outperformance from Nigeria. Watch the run-up to the Argentine elections in October for opportunities to re-enter the market.
- Long duration equity strategies (growth, technology, certain private equity LBO strategies) appear vulnerable….
- Some bond strategies may not live up to their downside protection billing the next time….
- What Asset Classes and Sectors have provided downside protection in prior market downturns?
- Why the 1970s and early 1980s style stagflation are unlikely today
- What economic and market characteristics are different today that prior pre-downturn periods?